Toronto Commercial Real Estate Blog - PLANit Real Estate Inc.

Key Indicator Alert: Non-residential building permits on the rise in Canada

Municipalities issued $6.5 billion in building permits in September, up 13.4%.

September's increase was the result of gains in all three components of the non-residential sector. The total value of building permits increased in seven provinces and two territories.

In the non-residential sector, the value of permits rose 41.7% to $3.2 billion. This increase was generated by a substantial gain in institutional permits, and lesser increases in the industrial and commercial components. Major increases occurred in Ontario, Saskatchewan and Alberta.

DETAILS
Non-residential sector: Institutional permits double
After two consecutive monthly declines, the value of institutional permits more than doubled (+108.8%) in September to a record $986 million. The increase came mostly from planned medical and educational building projects in Ontario and Saskatchewan.

Construction intentions for commercial buildings rose by 11.7% to $1.5 billion after three consecutive declines. Overall, seven provinces reported increases in commercial permits, with most of the gains occurring in Ontario, British Columbia and Quebec.

In the industrial sector, contractors took out $679 million in permits in September, more than 50% above the average value recorded in 2008. This was a 64.4% increase, which more than offset a 16.8% decline in these permits in August. The increase came mostly from maintenance buildings in Ontario and utility buildings in Alberta.

Residential sector: Second consecutive monthly decline for multi-family dwellings
Municipalities issued $1.2 billion in multi-family dwellings in September, down 11.6% from August and the second consecutive monthly decline.

Ontario and British Columbia accounted for most of the decline among the six provinces that reported a decrease in multi-family dwellings.

At the same time, permits for single-family dwellings fell 0.7% to $2.1 billion, a third consecutive decline. Significant decreases occurred in Ontario and British Columbia, which more than offset increases in five provinces and the three territories.

Quebec registered the largest gain and a third increase in four months in the value of single-family dwellings.

The overall number of residential units approved fell for a second consecutive month. Municipalities approved 16,134 new dwellings in September, down 3.5% from August.

The number of multi-family dwelling units approved declined 4.7% to 8,448. The number of single-family dwelling units fell 2.1% to 7,686, a third consecutive decrease.

Ontario Property Tax Assessments to rise in 2009

Ontario residential property taxpayers will see an average assessment increase of five per cent in 2009, the first year of a four-year phase-in plan.

“Residential property values have increased by an average of approximately 20 per cent across Ontario since 2005, when the last assessment update was done,” Carl Isenburg, President and Chief Administrative Officer of the Municipal Property Assessment Corporation (MPAC), said.

With a four-year phase-in, property taxpayers will see an average assessment increase of five per cent next year.

An increase in assessment does not necessarily mean an increase in property taxes. If the assessed value of a home has increased by the same percentage as the average in the municipality, there might be no increase in the property taxes paid by a property taxpayer.

The phase-in program does not apply to decreases in assessed value. The full amount of a decrease will be applied during the 2009 tax year.

“Our values are based on actual sales and trends in real estate markets across the province,” Isenburg said. Municipalities establish tax rates that are applied to assessed values to pay for local services and the Provincial Government sets rates for the education portion of the tax.

Property Assessment notices began arriving in the homes of property taxpayers in mid-September. MPAC expects the mailings to be completed over a ten-week period.

Notices get a new look
The Municipal Property Assessment Corporation (MPAC) has redesigned the 2008 Property Assessment Notice to make it easier to read and understand. This year’s Property Assessment Notice will include:

• The assessed value of the property for each of the next four tax years;
• The percentage by which the property has increased or decreased in value since the last assessment update in 2005 and the average percentage by which properties across the municipality have changed in value;
• A history of past adjustments, if any, made by MPAC through the Request for Reconsideration process or the Assessment Review Board to the assessed value of the property and whether these are reflected in the current assessment;
• Details about the property including lot size, square footage, and year of construction used by MPAC to help determine the assessed value of a property;
• A User ID and Password that can be used to access AboutMyProperty™;
• The address of the nearest MPAC local office where questions can be answered and concerns addressed in person; and
• The toll-free phone number for MPAC’s Customer Contact Centre.

A brochure is mailed with each notice. It explains how property owners can determine if their assessment is accurate and, if they feel it is not, what options are available to have it corrected.

Hours will be extended at each of MPAC’s 33 local offices across the province during the notice mailing period this fall, as was done in 2005. For more information, property taxpayers can also call MPAC’s Customer Contact Centre, which can be reached toll-free at 1-866-296-MPAC (6722). 

Key Indicator Alert: Real Estate Housing Trends - Key Indicator Forecast for 2008 - 2009

The Economy
Canada’s real gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.1 per cent in the first quarter of this year as inventory accumulation suffered a significant slow down.
The inventory correction shaved over one percentage point off of GDP, while a decline in exports subtracted about one-third of a percentage point (nonannualized) in the first three months of 2008.
Strong growth in wages and income bodes well for the consumer, although personal spending did slow to 3.2 per cent on an annualized basis.

Domestic demand has been driving Canada’s economy over the last two years and will have an integral role this year as well. Final domestic demand grew by 4.8 per cent in 2006 and 4.2 per cent in 2007.
However, net exports will continue to act as a drag on the Canadian economy thanks to a high-flying Loonie and a weakened U.S. economy. The U.S. economy continues to suffer from a housing market correction and the protracted financial market crisis, in addition to high commodity prices.

Canada’s real GDP is forecast to grow by 1.5 per cent this year and 2.4 per cent in 2009.

Mortgage Rates
The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee has made aggressive cuts to policy interest rates south of the border. The Fed Funds Rate has been cut by 325 basis points and now stands at 2.00 per cent.

In Canada, the Bank of Canada has cut the Target for the Overnight Rate by a total of 150 basis points since December 2007, bringing the rate down to 3.00 per cent.
For 2008, the one year posted mortgage rate will be in the 6.50 – 7.25 per cent range while the five-year posted mortgage rate will be in the 6.75 – 7.50 per cent range.

Mortgage rates are forecast to climb by 25 to 50 basis points in 2009.

Mortgage rates moved higher in mid June thereby taking away part of the decreases seen earlier in the year. Rates are expected to remain low in a historical context both this year and next. Higher mortgage carrying costs will be the end result, however, as mortgage rates are not expected to offset rising house prices; this will cool home ownership demand, particularly for first-time buyers.

Migration
Net migration (immigration minus emigration) is forecast to increase by 6.5 per cent this year to just over 245,000 people, then remain essentially unchanged in 2009. Historically high levels of migration will continue to support housing demand.

The majority of newly arrived immigrants initially settle in rental accommodations then move into home ownership over time. Positive net interprovincial migration to the West, coming at the expense of central Canada, will continue to boost housing demand in these provinces both this year and next.

Net migration is forecast to increase in 2008 and remain at a high level through 2009. Positive net interprovincial migration to the West will continue to boost housing demand at the expense of central Canada.

Employment
Employment in Canada grew by nearly 127,000 people in the first six months of this year and was up 1.7 per cent on a year-over-year basis in June. With a near record share of Canadians employed, future job growth will be constrained by increases in the population.

Employment growth is expected to come in at 1.7 per cent this year then slow to 1.2 per cent in 2009. Tight labour market conditions will continue to drive wages and incomes higher.

A near record share of Canadians are currently employed. Job creation is expected to slow as employment growth is forecast to be increasingly constrained by population growth. Tight labour markets will continue to drive up wages and income, thereby adding to strong domestic demand. Positive job growth will continue to fuel housing demand, but at a slower rate than last year.

Income
A tight labour market will continue to push wages and incomes higher. Rising incomes will offset part of the impact of higher mortgage carrying costs on home ownership demand.

Population
Canada’s aging population is resulting in a smaller proportion of people in their child bearing years. The declining birth rate is slowing the rate of increase in the natural population (births - deaths). This will lessen the demand for additional housing stock in the medium term.

Consumer Confidence
The index of consumer attitudes as measured by the Conference Board of Canada showed a marked decline in consumer confidence this summer. The last time consumer confidence fell so rapidly was after hurricane Katrina and the ensuing soaring gas prices. Shaken confidence will cause some consumers to postpone purchases of large ticket items such as housing.

Resale Market
Rising mortgage carrying costs will cool home ownership demand, particularly for first time buyers who have not benefited from the previous six years of strong price growth. Slowing sales combined with record levels of listings have pushed the Canadian existing home market into balanced territory. Balanced market conditions will keep future house price growth more in line with the general rate of inflation, although the Canadian average price will also be impacted by compositional effects.

Vacancy Rates
Increased competition from the condo market and modest rental construction will be partly offset by strong rental demand due to high immigration and a rising gap between the cost of home ownership and renting. As a result, vacancy rates across Canada’s metropolitan centres will remain relatively stable this year and next.

Key Indicator Alert: New Home Sales Down

New home construction will begin to slow in 2008, but will remain high by historical standards, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation's (CMHC) third quarter Housing Market Outlook report.

In Ontario, economic uncertainty, rising new housing prices and a greater selection of homes available in the resale market will result in fewer new home sales in 2008 and a dip in new home starts in 2009. The report also notes the average MLS^® price in Ontario rose by 7.6 per cent in 2007. However, for 2008 and 2009, the increases will be more modest at 2.8 per cent and 2.3 per cent respectively.

Even though the prices have dropped and will continue to drop, market conditions will result in a 3.3 per cent increase in the average MLS® price this year and a 3.0 per cent increase in 2009.

Go to HERE for the full report.

RE/MAX Exec: Canada's Housing Market In Better Condition Than The US

"There's been a lot of talk about real estate in the news in recent months. We've heard about declining housing starts, falling existing home sales, double-digit price depreciation, subprime fallout and foreclosures - in the United States.

Fortunately, we live in Canada. And Canadian real estate markets are far-better positioned than their American counterparts for a good number of reasons.

1. Subprime mortgages represent less than five per cent of our market nationally.
2. Foreclosures occur in about one quarter of one per cent of mortgage transactions in this country.
3. Canadians have more equity in their homes.
4. We have less debt than our neighbours south of the border.
5. Speculation has played little or no role in existing home sales in Ontario.
6. The fundamentals of our economy are relatively solid. Of the G8 countries, only Canada is expected to show growth in 2008 and 2009.
7. The Canadian banking system is one of the best in the world, relying more on old-fashioned lending than innovative financial products geared toward profit.
8. The Canadian job market is stronger than the US, adding more than 200,000 jobs so far this year.
9. Interest rates remain favourable.
10. Housing values in Ontario major centres did not experience serious, double-digit price appreciation year-after-year for an extended period. Our markets were characterized by stable, healthy growth.
11. Immigration continues to play a key role in housing markets. Between 2001 and 2006, more than 1.1 million immigrants came to this country, with about half settling in the province of Ontario. Immigrants tend to purchase a home within the first five years of living in Canada.

Real estate is cyclical. There will be peaks and valleys. The more restrained the peak, the more modest the valley.

There is no question that market conditions have moderated from 2007's record pace. More listings, softer housing values, longer days on market - but most centres are relatively solid. While some buyers and sellers will adopt a wait-and-see attitude, there are those that will continue to venture forward.

They'll need the services of a knowledgeable, experienced real estate professional to navigate the storm. They will look to you for information in today's complex real estate environment. Understanding market conditions will be of paramount importance to today's buyers and sellers, especially as conditions change in markets across the country.

That said, sellers will need to be realistic in setting a selling price. Listing a property at fair-market value will ensure that it will sell in a reasonable amount of time. This is not the time to test the market. Those that are truly interested in selling their properties know that over-priced homes risk stagnation. Buyers in today's market will need to be careful not to overextend themselves. They should know exactly what they can afford. Pre-approval for a mortgage loan is ideal because it lets buyers know exactly how much they can spend on their new home. "

"...Looking forward, we anticipate a continuation of stable market activity, minus the urgency present in past. Gone are the multiple offers that left both buyers and sellers dissatisfied. The increase in the number of homes listed for sale are a definite advantage for purchasers who now have the luxury of time in making one of the most important decisions of a lifetime. For sellers, the time to trade-up has never been better.

Canadians are great believers in homeownership - a fact underscored by the close to 70 per cent who own homes in this country. History has proven time and time again that real estate is a solid, long-term investment that appreciates at a rate of about five per cent annually. You can't live in your mutual fund, and after the last month in the financial markets, quite frankly, we're not sure you'd want to. "

from Michael Polzler
Executive Vice President and Regional Director
RE/MAX Ontario-Atlantic Canada Inc.

New Homes Sales drop - A Key Indicator for Recession - GTA

New Home Sales have dropped

New homes sales in the GTA dropped and have reached 2003 levels and appear they will drop further. New Home Sales are one of the Real Estate market Key Indicators of the trend in Real Estate.

October is experiencing the sales volumes we see in December of every year. December sales are always slow.  It appears that in December 2008 new home sales will be even lower.

Notice the trend since last year: buyers are attracted to High Rise buildings.

MY COMMENT
I can only imagine what will happen when THOUSANDS of condos become available in 2010 and later.

It appears over 60% bought pre-construction for Investment purposes.

QUESTIONS
- How many people will be in the market to rent?
- If there are lots of units available, do you really think the prices will hold high? Or do you expect a serious drop in rental prices?

Toronto's Commercial Update (Q3 - August 2008)

Bad Economic Times: Impact on Canada's Housing and Real Estate Market (Status: BUYERS MARKET)

Resale Housing Market in Toronto and GTA drops to pre 2005 levels

CURRENT TORONTO REAL ESTATE MARKET STATS
Our real estate market is now:
- 18% lower than 2007 or
- 10% lower than 2006.
- 21% drop in sales in Toronto same period a year ago
- 16% drop in sales in 905 areas same period a year ago
- 11% drop in GTA sales prices: from $399,013 in October 2007 down to $353,772 today
- 15% drop in Toronto sales prices: from $441,878 in October 2007 down to $375,804 today
- 8% drop in 905 Regions sales price: from $337,671in October 2007 down to $365,527 today
(This reversal trend will continue for the months to come)

Overall, there are 30% more homes available today since last year. This means 8000 homes or more are not selling. 

We are now officially in a BUYERS MARKET!

We strongly advise:
- DO NOT SELL if you don't have to
- SELL RIGHT NOW if things appear will be worse fo royu over the next 2 to 3 years
- Pre-construction buyers should start selling immediately. Cut your losses today.
- Do NOT WAIT for the future to rebound. Your LOSSES will be DEEPER.
- Hold your cash for another 6 months then, if the market is flat, start buying
- Invest in Commercial Real Estate instead
- Take your money out of mutual funds and stocks. In 2008 most people dropped their Mutual Funds. Do the same. Make a safer investment
- REAL ESTATE is the ONLY Recession-Proof Investment one can make
- If you must sell, use any possible mean (lease to own option, etc)

Remember this fact: When bad times hit, most people rent or lease!

You will need the cooperation of a capable real estate agent with a lot of marketing capabilities. One that understands your needs and helps you fulfill your plans. One that reaches beyond Canada for serious buyers.

Global Financial Crisis - Canada's Financial Outook

Recession is here! (We will refer to it as the 'R' word because it is a bad word to say).

THE PROBLEM
We are looking at a "severe and virtually unprecedented blow to the financial system". We were all thinking this is a housing bubble but the real problem and origin was the credit bubble that was developing since 2000. Policy makers and financial institutions relaxed and let this happen.

THE ACTIONS
We seriously believe that the problem cannot be solved with the actions taken. The so called "bailout" has failed and many are already looking at it with a suspicious eye. Most of it is a joke.

If the problem is really a $trillion or so dollars (from what they know today), what is $700 Billion going to do anyway? "It will restore confidence", they say! That's BS. Are all of us really that blind? All this DEBT is hanging above OUR OWN HEADS!!! We are BAILING OUT their own mess and their decisions!

What truth can restore my clients' confidence? "Your property will most likely go down to 1984 and 1990 levels".

Do you remember what happened then? Let me refresh your minds...

Homes had increased in value and fell back to old values within a few months. Now... if you say this won't happen, think again! It happened already twice! Why not this time around?

It also happens every day in Commercial transactions. Residential will follow suit. Mark my words... By the end of 2009, many properties in Toronto will see a 30-60% drop in value. There will be too many foreclosures and a huge increase in bankruptcies.

THE FUTURE
The future looks particularly bad, especially over the next 2-3 years. The market needs to stabilize.

When will you know the market has reached the bottom? (also known as how to determine value in the future market)

RULE OF THUMB
1) Take the possible gross rent of the property. (Say $1,500 + $200 in utilities= $1700/month)
2) Multiply by 12 months ($1,700 x 12 months = $20,400)
3) Multiply by 10 ($20,400 x 10 = $204,000)

Be particularly cautious of BANKRUPT COUNTRIES! Be particularly aware of food shortage soon, since shipments of crops are not being shipped anymore around the world. No Bank trust the other Bank's dinancial situation. They are not providing Letters of Credit. Right this mment there are shippments stuck in ports and ROTTING because of no credit.

Yes my friends... There is a strong possibility that some of us will suffer quite a bit. Be careful.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
Get out of bad markets today!
Remember what happened to your stocks in 2000? Those who knew and got out saved or cut their losses. Investors who held on got burnt.

HISTORY LESSONS
Let's look back in time.

1984: Exactly the same thing happened. Prices dropped and kept dropping for 3 years. Recovery came soon.
1990: Same thing. Prices dropped and remained low for about 4-5 years. Recovery came 4-5 years later.

2009: Same thing will happen again. Only this time, recovery looks far away, too far away!

IMO, most of the damage will occur AFTER the US elections. We know the game:
- Obama will complain "he inherited a mess"
- Obama will let things get worse for 2 years
- Obama will fail for the first two years
- Obama will do good things in the 3rd and 4th year
- Obama will get relected in year four
- Then things will fall apart again...
The cycle repeats itself over and over.

I forgot to mention... another war is then "required" as well as a few more "terrorist attacks" will occur to take peoples's mind off the REAL PROBLEM.

LOOK AT THE US NATIONAL DEBT CLOCK (it ran out of digits too!)

MY PREDICTIONS
- You think gas is low? Think $40 a barrel again (Say Good bye to Canadian and most Oil fields across the world that need prices of $33 or more to survive)
- Properties losing 50% of value (foreclosures soaring)
- Canadian dollar: 50 cents to the US (we will be a good bargain to be bought out in whole as a nation)
- Europe: still figuring things out (fortunately people there are not just numbers like in North America... they are considered more like animals)
- China: oops... foreigners are not buying anymore (Everyone back to being poor... Good bye Olympic fame...)

Please do NOT tell me that these people responsible for creating this mess did not know about it! This is what I call GRAND FAILURE!

If they did not foresee what was going on, they do NOT deserve to be in the positions that are. They are NOT CAPABLE of running global economies. REMOVE THEM IMMEDIATELY! Remove their powers immediately!

At the bottom of all this, it is a BIG SCHEME for money to transfer hands. FROM OURS (those who knew and created the mess) TO THEIR BANK ACCOUNTS (if there).

Those who knew the market over the past two weeks, made some serious serious money by buying when others were selling (see 1000 point drop in stock markets) and then continued to resell them the next day (900 points up the next day). This did happen a couple of times already, right? 

Who is really playing this game? And why are we not OPENING OUR EYES to see the light? We are being fooled and we are accepting it.

So, here is my advice: WAKE UP WORLD. Difficult times are ahead of us. You haven't seen anything yet. Do not believe the media. Media and news companies are all owned by the same people that created this mess. WAKE UP!

Do what you have to do to protect yourself.

Cash is King! Hold on to it! There will be a lot of OPPORTUNITIES soon! Be ready to BUY!

More Info HERE

New! The Real Estate Barometer

Note that this information is outdated.

Disaster is approaching!

What should you do? What are other investors doing? Get the scoop today! Sam's new service on keeping you abreast of about the current and future of Toronto's Commercial Real Estate conditions.

Get the scoop today!

Freestanding Building For Sale near St. Lawrence Market

Excellent Redevelopment Opportunity!

• 6,968 sq. ft. 2 story "* * 3 levels" - MLS® $3,399,000 CAD - * * REDUCED * *

Lower Sherbourne, Downtown  -  Excellent Re-Development Opportunity!

Exciting Location For Investor/User/Developer.

Toronto's New East Bayfront Development, A Waterfront Community With Mixed-Use Development, The Distiller And St. Lawrence Market Only Steps Away!

Mixed Use Prime Retail & Residential Location. Commercial / Retail / Suite Condos / High Rise / Hotel / Seniors Residence Possibilities.

Present Use 24 Studios (A Total Of 13620 Sqft Approx On 3 Flrs)

RA Zoning is Flexible For Many Uses.

Free Standing Two Storey Building Near David Crombie Park & New Parkside Redevelopment Currently Underway.

100'+ On L. Sherbourne, South Of Front St.

Easy Access To Ttc, Gardiner Exp & Dvp.

Motivated Seller Would Like To See All Offers. Owner To Consider Joint Venture Opportunities. Vtb (2nd) Also Possible.

Survey And Soil Analysis Available.

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Commercial Space For Lease in Mississauga 2259 sq.ft.

• 2,259 sq. ft. Commercial - MLS $27 per sqft 

Mississauga
Great Location, Situated Between Longos Supermarket And Bank Of Montreal. Nearest Cross Street Derry Rd.
Bustling Strip Mall With Subway, Pizza Pizza, Pharmacy, Doctors, Lawyers, Dentist And Physiotherapist.

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FREE 10 Step Investment Class

Interested in Purchasing Real Estate as an Investment? Find out the benefits and pitfalls of buying and selling real estate. Make the right move!

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Is Real Estate a Great Investment?

Is real estate a good or bad investment? Find out what we have to say!

100 Townhouse Complex For Sale in Sudbury

Unique Townhouse Complex (100 units)

•  commercial "Investment Opportunity" - MLS® $8,990,900 CAD - Great Investment

Twin Forks Playground, Sudbury  -  Unique Investment Opportunity: 100 Townhouse complex for sale. 8%+ Cap Rate.
Call Listing agent for more details.

View listing's website:http://Sudbury.TOCommercialRealEstate.com

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